Friday, June 27, 2008

Heading for the Exit Lane - CIBC World Markets

So, the folks at CIBC World Markets have predicted that by 2010 we will see $1.85 per liter gas.

"Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America's highways in history. By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today..."

The report goes on to state the poor will be the hardest hit. They figure that half of all vehicles leaving the road will be from America's poor. People with access to Public Transport will be the lucky ones.

Oh, the article also states that oil prices will be high for the foreseeable future.

"The additional 200,000 barrels per day pledged form Saudi Arabia is a pittance compared to the four million barrels per day that depletion will hive off world production this year... "

So if I were in charge of transportation projects in BC, I would start spending real money on transit today: beef up Translink's bus network, build light rail to UBC and to Coquitlam, restore the Interurban to the Fraser Valley, and build streetcars. The cost of oil combined with road pricing should should take care of the congestion (it's already happening) for the time being as we build out our transportation system for the future. We can then go back an expand our road network as needed.

On that note, it's also good to see that some of our municipalities and provincial leaders are waking-up to the fact that our world is changing. Mixed-use, transit oriented development is the future. Hopefully more will realize this in the coming months or years.

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