Wednesday, April 18, 2018

People leaving Vancouver and Burnaby for Surrey and Langley

Our region is continuing to grow, and by 2041 an additional 1 million people will call Metro Vancouver home. The Metro Vancouver Regional District does detailed analysis of growth projects, breaking down the components of growth into several categories.

The components of growth include natural changes, meaning the number of births in the region subtracted by the number of deaths; inter-provincial migration between provinces; intra-provincial migration in BC; and inter-municipal migration within the region. The following graph shows the components of current growth, and forecasted growth for our region.

Components of Metro Vancouver population growth. Select chart to enlarge.

What is clear is that people who immigrate to Canada will be the driving component of population growth in our region. Historically, Vancouver would accept the most new people to Canada, but Surrey is starting to take the lead.

Immigration by municipal distribution. Select chart to enlarge.

People who live in other provinces and territory are a smaller component of population growth in our region.

When it comes to migration within BC, more people living in Metro Vancouver will be leaving the region for other parts of the province than vise versa. The most interesting graph to me is the migration of people that currently live in our region between municipalities.

Inter-municipal migration in Metro Vancouver. Select chart to enlarge.

Between 2001 and 2011, there was a significant net flow of people from Vancouver and Burnaby to Surrey, Langley, New Westminster, and Maple Ridge. I have to wonder if housing prices and job opportunities have something to do with that flow.

Subregional population projections to 2041 and beyond. Select chart to enlarge.

The end result is that with both immigration and migration within Metro Vancouver, Surrey and the South of Fraser will increasing become the new centre of our region.


Bill Lee said...

Can you correlate new housing starts (rooms, bedrooms) to population changes?
And by age? Are young people going to Surrey, or as families?

We know that Abbotsford is now a source of cheap workers in Vancouver, is that factored into this?

Nathan Pachal said...

I don't have the stats on that, but it is certainly worth looking into. I do know that when it comes to the South of Fraser, around 80% of people that live within the sub-region also work within the sub-region.