Monday, May 25, 2009

Broadway Subway to UBC Another Backward Project?

Township Councillor Charlie Fox alerted us to this Vancouver Sun article about the proposed UBC subway idea that will cost approximately $ 3 billion.

Author Miro Cernetig looked at potential ridership and financing costs and estimates this $3B line could actually cost $5 .8 billion or a cost of $58,000 per rider. In his model Cernetig says the "100,000 riders would have to ride the rails every day, seven days a week, for $5 apeice, for more than 30 years to pay down the investment."

The author goes on to say that Metro Vancouver's population is expected to grow by 45% out to 2031. But he also points out that Vancouver is projected to grow from 607,000 (in 2006) to 709,000 by 2031, only a modest 17%. While population in Abbotsford, Coquitlam, Langley Township and Surrey was 770,000 and is projected to be 1.29 million in 2031, or a 67% increase in population!

Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon has said that rail for the south Fraser must be stidied because "we don't want to blow our brains out financially." The minister reiterated that to me just a few weeks ago face to face. At a time when TransLink is already expecting to be broke very soon financially, why would one blow their brains out with this crazy plan? It seems that the powers that be would rather blow their brains out on Vancouver than the south Fraser. Someone is clearly NOT giving Minister Falcon very good advice here.

1 comment:

Light Rail Guy said...

The real cost of a UBC subway would be nearer to $10 billion, if one includes debt servicing, which unlike other transit authorities, TransLink does not.

Subways are also very poor in attracting ridership and the 'school of SkyTrain' would have us believe the opposite.

TransLink is bankrupt, both financially and intellectually, which is a very dangerous combination.