Are high fuel taxes driving people south of the border?

It seems like every other day there is a story about people heading to the US in droves in order to avoid carbon tax, TransLink fuel tax, and pretty much any other tax in Canada. I wondered if this was true, so I decided to have a look at the border crossings statistics that are compiled by the US Department of Transportation.

Looking at the following graph which shows US-bound personal vehicle annual volumes between 1999 and 2012, a different story emerges.

US-bound personal vehicle annual volumes at Lower Mainland border crossing, noting fuels taxes and border expansion. Click graph to enlarge.

What clearly stands out is that 9/11 caused a large decrease in border crossing volumes. The Great Recession also played a role in suppressing border crossings. 1999-level traffic volume was not reached again until 2010. It is interesting to note that between 1999 and 2010, increases in both TransLink fuel tax and carbon tax did not strongly correlate with border crossing volumes. What does stand out is the jump in border crossing traffic volumes between 2010 and 2012. In this time period Vancouver hosted the Olympic Games, and in 2011 the Peace Arch border crossing was expanded.

While it appears that there is a link between increased fuel taxes and border crossing traffic volume, I decided to look at border crossing volumes in Southern Ontario.

US-bound personal vehicles, comparing Lower Mainland crossings to Southern Ontario crossings (Detroit, Port Huron, & Buffalo-Niagara Falls). Click graph to enlarge.

Interesting enough, there is also a sharp increase in border crossings in Southern Ontario as well. Southern Ontario does not have a regional transportation fuel tax or carbon tax. While higher fuel taxes are causing some people to go to the US, there is clearly something bigger at play. The Canadian dollar started to be regularly on par with the US dollar around 2010. At the same time, our economy started to recover.

Let’s for a moment believe that all the US-bound traffic is trying to dodge taxes in Canada. How much traffic is that really in the grand scheme of things? All US-bound personal vehicles crossings in the Lower Mainland (that includes the Peace Arch, Pacific Highway, Aldergrove, and Sumas crossings) equalled about 20% of the traffic that went through the George Massey Tunnel in 2011. Put another way, more people use the 99 B Line than cross the US border. In in fact, the daily difference in US-bound personal vehicle crossing volumes, between the lowest point in 2003 and 2012 high point, is about 8895 vehicles. Considering there are 1,520,776 vehicles registered in Metro Vancouver, the amount of traffic that is US-bound is just a tiny blip.

Comparing annual average traffic volumes through George Massey Tunnel to US-bound personal vehicles crossing volumes. Click graph to enlarge.

Looking at the numbers, it seems like the stories about people heading to the US in massive to avoid Canadian taxes might be blown out of proportion. While higher fuels costs are causing some people to fill up in the US, there is a Canada wide trend of increased border crossings which leads me to believe that TransLink fuel tax and BC carbon tax aren't the main reason why most people travel to the US.